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At the start of election night, prediction markets priced Trump’s odds of winning the election at 35-40%, while FiveThirtyEight’s model was at 11%
During election night Trump’s odds rose to as high as 80%, until quickly dropping to below 25% when Arizona flipped to the Democrats
Based on the available data, it looks like prediction markets overreacted to newly reported news. Arguably, this was the case in both directions (for and against Trump)
Footnotes
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