Macro Analysis
February 26, 2020, 11:23AM EST
• 5 min read

Uncorrelated is uncorrelated: data continues to suggest bitcoin clearly not a haven asset

Ryan Todd

Quick Take

  • Amidst a coronavirus-driven sell-off, Bitcoin is clearly not serving as a safe haven
  • The bond market and the possibility of global growth contracting significantly in the 2Q has many expecting the Fed to step in and cut rates — causing some to suggest this is favorable for bitcoin
  • In 2019, The Block found no discernible positive impact on the returns of bitcoin when rates were cut, over a 1-week, 1-month, 3-month return lag
  • Since 2013, we found over 57 observations where at least 2/3 of a haven asset basket (gold, yen, U.S. Treasuries) saw a daily outsized return
  • Among those days, bitcoin also saw an outsized daily move on ~20% of those observations
  • If anything, bitcoin is acting less as a haven asset, as 80% of shared outsized moves with other havens have come before 2018

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